Oil edges up as US plans more strikes in Mideast; Ukraine hits Russian refinery

Oil prices edged higher on Monday, rebounding from steep declines last week. The uptick came after Washington vowed to carry out additional strikes on Iran-backed factions in the Middle East and amid reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on the largest refinery in southern Russia.

Brent crude futures climbed 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $77.69 per barrel by 0511 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $72.53 per barrel, marking a gain of 25 cents, or 0.4%.

Both crude oil benchmarks closed the previous week with losses of approximately 7%. They experienced a 2% decline on Friday, attributed to robust U.S. employment figures, which hinted that interest rate reductions might not occur as soon as anticipated. Additionally, progress in ceasefire discussions between Israel and Hamas contributed to the decline.

“Hopes of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas drove some of this weakness,” saud ING analysts in a note.

“However, for now, a ceasefire does not appear imminent.”

Investors maintained caution regarding any potential escalation in the Middle East conflict, following indications from the U.S. of additional strikes on Iran-backed groups in the region. This response comes after a deadly attack on U.S. troops in Jordan.

The U.S. also intensified its campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, conducting 36 strikes on Saturday against the groups responsible for attacks on shipping vessels. Despite these incidents disrupting global oil tradingroutes, overall supply has remained largely unaffected.

“Given the US military strikes avoid directly attacking Iran, we think the Israel‑Hamas ceasefire talks will have the more dominant effect ‑ thereby reducing Middle‑East tensions,” noted Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar.

“Oil markets will likely respond by continuing to discount supply disruption risks in the Middle East,” he remarked in a client note on Monday, suggesting that Brent futures would likely remain below $80 a barrel.

The U.S. Department of Justice unveiled sanctions-evasion charges and seizures associated with an oil trafficking network allegedly funding Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Authorities confiscated more than 520,000 barrels of sanctioned Iranian oil found on the crude tanker Abyss, which was anchored in the Yellow Sea while en route to China.

Iran’s budget aims for oil sales of 1.35 million barrels per day for the Iranian year starting March 2024, representing approximately 1.3% of the 103.5 million bpd global supply forecasted by the International Energy Agency.

In Russia, two Ukrainian attack drones targeted the largest oil refinery in the country’s south on Saturday, according to a source in Kyiv speaking to Reuters. This strike is part of a series of long-range attacks on Russian oil facilities, which has led to a reduction in Russia’s exports of naphtha, a petrochemical feedstock.

Lukoil, the owner of the 300,000 barrels per day Volgograd refinery, later confirmed that the plant was operating normally.

Power at BP’s 435,000 barrel-per-day oil refinery in Whiting, Indiana, was restored by midday on Friday. However, sources indicated that BP had not yet set a date for restarting the plant.

Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.38% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.