Oil prices inch up as CPI data looms, OPEC report on the horizon
Oil prices edged up in Asian trade on Tuesday amid cautious market sentiment ahead of key U.S. inflation data, which is likely to influence interest rates. Additionally, attention was on the upcoming monthly report from OPEC.
Brent oil futures for May delivery increased by 0.3% to $82.43 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 0.3% to $77.77 a barrel as of 22:01 ET (02:01 GMT).
Crude markets face mixed demand and supply signals
Crude prices have stayed mostly rangebound in recent sessions, with conflicting signals on demand and supply. Brent and WTI futures have been trading within the $85 a barrel to $75 a barrel range for the past three weeks.
China has become a focal point for oil markets, as demand in the world’s largest crude importer seems to be weakening, with limited prospects for immediate improvement. Beijing has set a modest growth target for 2024 and has provided little indication of additional stimulus measures.
Concerns regarding China were somewhat mitigated by expectations of heightened U.S. crude demand, as several refiners in the country began ramping up production after an extended break. However, China’s crude production remained at record highs, exceeding 13 million barrels per day.
Markets are now eagerly anticipating a monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for further insights into demand, particularly following the cartel’s announcement that it will uphold its current rate of production cuts until the end of June.
Signs of minimal de-escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict, particularly as ceasefire negotiations collapsed, suggested ongoing supply risks in the Middle East.
Confrontations with the Yemeni Houthi group in the Red Sea have also caused ongoing disruptions in shipping activity in the region.
Later this week, a monthly report from the International Energy Agency is also scheduled for release.
U.S. CPI data awaited for interest rate signals
Oil markets remained cautious ahead of the release of key U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data scheduled for later on Tuesday.
The reading is anticipated to reveal that inflation persisted above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target in February, indicating sticky inflation trends.
Any indications of upward pressure on inflation are expected to prompt a more hawkish stance from the Fed, potentially leading to the maintenance of higher U.S. interest rates for an extended period. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned last week that the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2024 would primarily hinge on the trajectory of inflation.
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