OPEC+ Cautious of U.S. Oil Surge Under Trump’s Leadership, Sources Reveal

The OPEC+ alliance is closely monitoring the potential resurgence of U.S. oil production as Donald Trump prepares to take office, sources within the group report. A significant uptick in U.S. output could further erode OPEC+’s market share, complicating efforts to stabilize prices amid weakening global demand.

OPEC+, which supplies nearly half of the world’s oil, recently postponed a planned production increase until April 2025 and extended its existing supply cuts through 2026. The move reflects challenges from rising U.S. production and competition from other non-OPEC+ producers.

U.S. Output Looms Large

The U.S., now the world’s largest oil producer, accounts for 20% of global supply, a sharp rise from a decade ago. Shale production in particular has exceeded expectations, boosted by technological advances and favorable market conditions. Trump’s pro-energy policies, including proposed deregulation, are likely to encourage further growth in the sector.

While some OPEC+ delegates view Trump’s return as positive for the broader oil industry due to relaxed environmental policies, they express concern about increased U.S. output undermining OPEC+ market influence.

Balancing Production and Prices

OPEC+ has been managing production cuts since 2022, withholding 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd) from the market. Despite these efforts, U.S. oil production has surged by 11% to 21.6 million bpd during the same period. This growth has reduced OPEC+’s market share to 48%, its lowest level since the group’s formation in 2016.

The group’s strategy to gradually raise output starting in April 2025 hinges on stable prices, but higher U.S. exports could disrupt this balance. Trump’s campaign promises to increase domestic production to curb energy prices and inflation may further exacerbate the situation.

Diverging Market Perspectives

Analysts highlight the delicate dynamic between OPEC+ and the U.S. Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, noted that rising U.S. production has consistently challenged OPEC+’s ability to influence the market. Additionally, OPEC itself forecasts a 2.3% increase in U.S. supply next year, even as it trims its expectations for global oil demand growth.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects U.S. output growth of 3.5% in 2025, outpacing OPEC estimates. Some industry leaders, however, believe the U.S. shale industry’s focus on profitability—known as capital discipline—may limit production growth, especially if oil prices decline.

OPEC+ Strategy and U.S. Policy

Trump’s plans to expand drilling permits and deregulate energy markets could take years to yield significant new production, given the long lead times required for oilfield development. Analysts like Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group emphasize that U.S. production growth remains highly sensitive to global oil prices, which are influenced more by OPEC+ decisions than by domestic policy changes.

As OPEC+ prepares for its next steps, the group must navigate the dual challenge of sustaining oil prices while contending with the competitive pressures posed by a potentially resurgent U.S. oil industry.

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