Oil Prices Inch Up Amid Middle East Focus
Oil prices saw a slight increase on Tuesday amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding conflicts in the Middle East. However, gains were limited by apprehensions that central banks might maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to combat inflation, which could potentially dampen energy demand.
Brent futures climbed by 30 cents, reaching $82.30 per barrel as of 09:24 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 31 cents, reaching $77.23 per barrel.
Oil prices remained largely unchanged in Monday’s trading session, following a 6% increase last week.
Oil prices held steady on Monday after last week’s 6% increase, driven by ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip continue, with mediators reconvening on Tuesday amid the threat of an Israeli ground offensive in Rafah.
“Oil prices have been numbed into submission by what has transpired, or not, in the Middle East,” said John Evans of oil broker PVM in a note on Tuesday.
One “untoward act, missile or sudden peace agreement and crude prices will move $10/barrel.”
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis have continued their attacks in the Red Sea, citing solidarity with Palestinians. They have targeted vessels with commercial ties to the U.S., Britain, and Israel since mid-November.
Changing expectations regarding the trajectory of U.S. interest rates have restrained price gains, as recent comments from central bankers have dashed market hopes for early rate cuts this year.
The January Survey of Consumer Expectations from the New York Fed revealed that the outlook for inflation, both one year and five years from now, remained above the Fed’s 2% target rate.
If concerns about inflation delay Fed interest rate cuts, it could potentially dampen economic growth and impact oil demand negatively.
U.S. inflation data is anticipated on Tuesday, followed by British inflation and euro zone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data expected on Wednesday.
U.S. crude inventory data is also scheduled for release later on Tuesday, with analysts estimating an average increase of about 2.6 million barrels in the week ending Feb. 9.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is set to publish its monthly oil market report on Tuesday. However, the group’s next significant decision will occur in March when OPEC and its allies, including Russia (known as OPEC+), will determine whether to extend voluntary oil production cuts.
“Our balance sheet suggests that the market will be in surplus in the second quarter of 2024 if the group fails to roll over part of these cuts,” ING analysts said in a Tuesday note.
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