Oil Prices Hold Steady as OPEC+ Decision and Geopolitical Tensions Loom

Oil prices remained largely unchanged on Wednesday, with markets anticipating an OPEC+ decision on extending supply cuts and keeping a close eye on escalating geopolitical tensions. Brent crude futures rose by 5 cents, or 0.07%, to $73.67 per barrel by 1214 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell slightly by 4 cents, or 0.06%, to $69.90 per barrel.

Brent saw a 2.5% surge on Tuesday, marking its largest gain in two weeks, supported by geopolitical developments. A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, South Korea’s brief martial law declaration, and intensifying conflict in Syria bolstered prices. Analysts noted that these events highlighted risks in key oil-producing regions, lending support to the market.

In the Middle East, Israel warned of escalating its attacks into Lebanon if its truce with Hezbollah collapses. Meanwhile, South Korea faced political turmoil after President Yoon Suk Yeol’s controversial martial law declaration and its swift reversal, leading to an impeachment motion in parliament.

Despite these factors, oil prices struggled to breach the $75 resistance level. Analysts like Dilin Wu of Pepperstone attributed this to market fatigue over geopolitical headlines and the expectation of predictable OPEC+ actions. The group, comprising OPEC members and allied producers like Russia, is widely expected to extend its 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cuts into the first quarter of 2025 during its Thursday meeting.

Some analysts, such as Tamas Varga of PVM Oil, suggest that while OPEC+ measures and geopolitical risks lend temporary support, they are unlikely to alter the broader market dynamic. Persistent supply constraints and loose oil balances are expected to cap any significant price rallies.

Adding to market uncertainty, U.S. crude oil inventories reportedly rose by 1.2 million barrels last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API). Gasoline inventories saw a sharp increase of 4.6 million barrels, even during the Thanksgiving holiday period, which typically spurs higher demand.

Official stock data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), due later Wednesday, is expected to show a 700,000-barrel decline in crude inventories and a 639,000-barrel rise in gasoline stocks, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters.

Markets now await Thursday’s OPEC+ decision for clarity on supply policies heading into 2024 and fresh catalysts to break the current range-bound trading.

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