Oil drops 1% on Saudi cuts, despite Mid-East tensions
Oil prices declined over 1% on Monday due to significant price reductions from leading exporter Saudi Arabia and an increase in OPEC production, even as concerns about rising tensions in the Middle East persisted.
Brent crude dropped 0.93%, or 73 cents, reaching $78.03 per barrel by 0753 GMT, following a decline of over 1% earlier. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 1.04%, or 77 cents, to settle at $73.04 a barrel.
Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis firm Vanda Insights, commented, “Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) slashing its February OSPs bolsters the weak demand narrative.”
Increased supply and competitive pressures led Saudi Arabia to reduce the February official selling price (OSP) of its primary Arab Light crude to Asia, marking its lowest level in 27 months.
“If we were just to focus on the fundamentals including, higher inventories, higher OPEC/non-OPEC production, and a lower-than-expected Saudi OSP, it would be impossible to be anything other than bearish crude oil,” said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.
“However, that doesn’t take into account the fact that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are undeniably rising again which will mean limited downside.”
Both contracts rose over 2% in the initial week of 2024, as investors resumed activity post-holidays, turning their attention to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East due to Red Sea ship attacks by Yemeni Houthis.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, currently in the Middle East, warned that without a collective peace initiative, the Gaza conflict might escalate throughout the region.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated his intention to persist with the conflict until Hamas is eradicated.
Countering the upward price pressure due to geopolitical tensions, data from a Reuters survey revealed that output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, reaching 27.88 million bpd.
“The Red Sea tensions are the only counterweight, albeit a relatively weak and intermittent one, to crude prices succumbing to bearishness over expectations of softening global demand and rising inventories,” Vanda Insights‘ Hari said.
In a separate development, Baker Hughes reported that oil drilling rigs in the U.S. increased by one to reach 501 for the past week.
JPMorgan predicts that 26 oil rigs will be added this year, with the majority expected in the Permian region during the initial six months.
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