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Friday, 14. June 2024

Dollar Stability Precedes Key Data and Bank of Canada Meeting


On Wednesday, the dollar held firm as markets awaited crucial U.S. economic releases and the upcoming Bank of Canada policy meeting, which is anticipated to trigger a cycle of rate cuts among major economies.

Investors are keenly monitoring U.S. services data due on Wednesday, alongside further job figures later in the week. The dollar has been trading near a two-month low, with indications of a softening U.S. economy prompting expectations of earlier Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Anticipation Builds Ahead of Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Meetings

The Bank of Canada convenes a day ahead of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. Market sentiment suggests a 75% chance of a Canadian rate cut and a 95% likelihood of a cut in Europe. The Canadian dollar and euro remain within a stable range, with market focus on the outlook as much as the actual decisions.

Implications of Policy Actions on Currency Markets

Joe Capurso, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, notes that if the Bank of Canada signals a potential series of rate cuts, it could significantly weaken the Canadian dollar.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index saw a slight uptick to 104.92, rebounding from Tuesday’s low of 103.99, its lowest level since April 9. Investors are also monitoring Brent crude futures closely, as low oil prices could impact global disinflation trends.

Currency Market Dynamics

The yen experienced a decline of about 0.6% to 155.90 per dollar, retracing some of the gains observed on Tuesday. Japanese real wages continued their downward trend in April, with inflation outpacing nominal wage increases. The yen remains the worst-performing G10 currency this year.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars saw modest gains following less alarming domestic economic news than anticipated. Emerging markets stabilized after recent volatility, with the Mexican peso recovering after a significant decline driven by election results in Mexico. India’s rupee experienced a drop after initial recovery, following election outcomes showing a narrower victory for Narendra Modi than expected.

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