Oil climbs due to supply concerns and China’s recovery

Crude oil prices climbed for the third consecutive session on Monday. This rise was driven by expectations of an expanding supply shortfall in the fourth quarter, following extensions of production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Additionally, optimism regarding a demand recovery in China contributed to the increase.

Brent crude futures saw an uptick of 71 cents, equivalent to a 0.8% increase, reaching $94.64 per barrel by 0622 GMT. Simultaneously, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading at $91.55 per barrel, marking a gain of 78 cents, or 0.9%.

“China’s stimulus policy, resilient U.S. economic data, and OPEC+’s ongoing output cuts are the bullish factors that support the oil market’s upside movement,” stated Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets (LON:CMCX). She was referring to China’s central bank’s recent reserve ratio reduction, aimed at enhancing liquidity and bolstering the nation’s economy.

Traders will be closely monitoring central banks‘ decisions and statements, notably the U.S. Federal Reserve, regarding interest rate policies this week. Additionally, significant economic data releases from China will be of keen interest.

Both Brent and WTI have seen a three-week streak of gains, reaching their highest points since November. They are currently poised for their most significant quarterly surge since the first quarter of 2022, coinciding with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

According to ANZ analysts, the production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia may result in a deficit of 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter. This potential shortfall, coupled with a subsequent depletion of inventories, could leave the market susceptible to additional price spikes in 2024.

Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended their supply cuts until the end of the year, aligning with the OPEC+ group’s strategy. Concurrently, Chinese refineries have increased production, fueled by robust export margins.

Edward Moya, an analyst at OANDA, expressed, “It seems like prices will easily find a home above the $90 a barrel level, which means the focus might shift to the demand outlook from the world’s two largest economies”.

According to ANZ, global oil demand growth is projected to reach 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd), aligning with forecasts from the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

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